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By Khosi Mavimbela, Executive Director, Forest Sector Charter Council (FSCC)
By any measure, 2026 will not be a year to apply the “business as usual” approach. As a woman in an executive leadership position responsible for planning, forecasting and stewarding my organisation through cycles of growth and disruption, I can say with confidence that the assumptions on which I once relied no longer hold.
Globally, we are navigating an era defined by compounding uncertainty. Climate change is not a future risk but a present reality that causes damage to infrastructure, disrupts supply chains, and influences markets. Geopolitics has become increasingly polarised with ripple effects on trade, interest rates, food security and global alliances.
South Africa faces its own layered complexity. Unemployment and inequality remain stubbornly high, skills gaps ever-present and consumer confidence fragile. Add to this a fluctuating exchange rate and the withdrawal or reduction of certain forms of US aid. There is also the tension of addressing funding gaps and the demand for social and economic resilience.
Against this backdrop, the idea of a fixed, linear 12-month plan feels almost naïve. Yet abandoning planning altogether is not the answer. The volatile environment in which we function requires disciplined, agile planning.
It is no longer “How do we predict the next year?” but rather “How do we build a plan that can adapt as the year unfolds?”
I believe there are three broad but realistic principles we could apply when building our plan.
- Plan for scenarios, not certainty
A common planning error is insisting on a single “most likely” forecast. In stable times, this may suffice. In volatile times, it is dangerous.
A plan should cover three clear scenarios:
- A base case (what happens if conditions are stable).
- A downside case (what happens if key risks materialise).
- An upside or opportunity case (what happens if conditions improve or a strategic opportunity emerges).
This does not require complex modelling but disciplined thinking. Identify two or three variables that matter most to your organisation. It may be exchange rate movement, energy availability, regulatory change, funding flows, or consumer demand. Then stress test your plan against realistic shifts in those variables.
The value lies not in predicting which scenario will occur, but in preparing your responses.
Management teams are to answer the question: “What will you do if this assumption breaks?” Scenario planning ensures you already know.
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- Shorten the decision cycle, not the vision
Agility does not mean abandoning long-term ambition but lies in having a clear long-term ‘north star’. Determine the frequency at which you review and adjust your path.
Don’t lock in a 12-month plan in January and revisit it the following year. Build in formal quarterly, or even bi-monthly, checkpoints where you can ask:
- What has changed externally?
- Which assumptions still hold?
- Where do we need to reallocate resources, pause initiatives, or accelerate others?
Shorter decision cycles allow us to respond without panic, while still operating within an agreed strategic framework.
It also strengthens trust and demonstrates control, not chaos.
- Build optionality into budgets and people plans
True agility is impossible if every rand is pre-allocated and every team is stretched to maximum capacity. Flexibility is not a luxury or add-on.
An agile plan allows for course correction:
- A portion of the budget held for emerging risks or opportunities.
- Phased investments rather than all-or-nothing commitments.
- Cross-skilled teams that can be redeployed as priorities shift.
Leaders who build in “buffers” are not being conservative, they are being strategic.
This approach sends a powerful cultural signal where your people see adaptability as valued and that leadership is thinking ahead rather than reacting late.
The leadership mindset shift
Ultimately, I consider building agility into a 12-month plan is less about tools and more about mindset, moving from a need for control to a commitment and rigidity to adaptation and readiness.
Resilience against global influences will not come from having the “right” plan, but from a plan designed to evolve.
That is what modern leadership demands. And that is what the next 12 months will reward.
Makhosazana “Khosi” Mavimbela is the Executive Director of South Africa’s Forest Sector Charter Council (FSCC/ Council), where she leads transformation across the forestry industry and associated forest product value chains.
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